Opinions $ 70 as lower boundary of oil Unlikely

Opinions: $ 70 as the lower boundary of the oil? Unlikely but possible

Many
oil traders are now betting that
Venezuela’s plan to resurrect the old
formation mechanism price range
OPEC is doomed from the start. establish
$ 70 level “floor” for the oil to
badly battered market, according to
many seem utopian idea.

Actual
cartel leader, Saudi Arabia, not
demonstrated interest in return
price support policies. big
producers outside OPEC – in
Specifically, Russia – refuse
reduce production. Most analysts
or say that the attempt to install
the price range is useless in itself
currently, or that the corridor is possible, but 70
dollars as a floor – it is prohibitive
high.

the
However, several experts and
Observers say that the proposal
it can be a catalyst for
OPEC to shift from the approach of absolute
non-interference in the price of oil. An approach
This, recall, led to suffocation
investment in the industry around the world, to
reduction of corporate budgets and
States and has led some countries
– for example, Venezuela – to the edge of the abyss.

Even
if the idea is not to pass on intact
form, it may provide a first
a significant step in the direction to
the first time for many months to find common
language and look for a way to stabilize
the oil market.

Plan,
which will be considered on October 21
a meeting of technical experts in Vienna,
It seems simple: the progressive reduction
production rates for control, with the bottom
threshold of $ 70 per barrel
the later arrival of the price to $ 100
a barrel. This was told
in an interview with Reuters news agency, former
Venezuelan oil minister, Rafael Ramirez.
His statement followed a
a few months of the presidential
visits and vague statements Nicholas
Maduro, most of whom were
obscure and treated
as the desperate attempts of the non-standard
Leader of all the short time of existence
oil diplomacy.

AT
opposed to him, Ramirez more than a decade
He served as the face of Venezuelan oil policy,
working closely, for example, with Ali
Al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum of Saudi
Arabia. He found time, during
that the price of oil jumped from $ 20
per barrel to almost $ 150
– and again she went down.

On
Meeting of October 21 invited eight
Countries outside of OPEC, Azerbaijan,
Brazil, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Norway,
Mexico, Oman and Russia. This is evidenced by
acting Minister of Oil of Venezuela,
Eulodzhio del Pino.

how
a means of overcoming the crisis earlier
cartel used narrowing formula
price range. For example, after
how in the late 1990s, the price of oil
It fell to $ 10 a barrel,
Group found the corridor $ 22 – 28 per
barrel. In 2005, the growing demand has caused
markup, and then OPEC
I never officially established the
price framework.

AT
last year Venezuela is trying to return
OPEC to “corridors” system, but attempts
not crowned with success. This year
the price fell to multi-year lows,
but major manufacturers (including
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) do not experience
no desire to sacrifice their
share of the market to recover high
commodity prices.

the
Still, there are some signs
that after years of low prices, and the face
deep uncertainty about the future
patience manufacturers ready
end.

Minister
Russian Energy Alexander Novak
I met with Ali al-Naimi in Istanbul
last week and said that Russia
ready to meet with OPEC and other
oil-producing countries. In his
speech in Kuwait Senior Advisor
Energy in Saudi Arabia
Ibrahim al-Muhanna, complained
the absence of “anchor” in the oil market
and the fact that it is fueling volatility
and presses on investment.

“Situation
unnatural and difficult to observe
to see how it develops, “- he said,
Al-Muhanna, but offered no
specific ideas about what you can do
to remedy the situation.

A source,
close to the Venezuelan delegation to OPEC,
He said that would be virtually impossible
make Saudi Arabia
Russian sitting at a table and peacefully
We discussed the decline in production. but
discussion about the introduction of “sex” oil
at the technical level, the price may put
the beginning of the rest of the debate and help
achieve universal goals.

analysts
write that it is not impossible
that countries have signed a
the decision of the Technical Council of the
establishing price caps. but
many of them add that the real
obligations on production
level, it will be very difficult to call,
and to a large extent this gesture
nonsensical.

However,
there are those who completely believes in the effectiveness of
such a step. “It works great
the past, because that gave markets
the possibility for movement, but at the same time
It keeps them from large price fluctuations ”
– said one of the veterans of the market.

besides
the mechanism itself, in an open discussion
manufacturers will discuss also the target
price, voiced by Ramirez. Many
countries agree that the $ 70 –
this is the right goal. But here, for example,
several OPEC members, including Iraq and
Angola, offered in June, $ 75 –
80 per dollar – is the real
intelligent “plug” prices. However, this
background of the main members of the Middle East
OPEC may worry about losing too
a large share of the market at such prices.

Not
forget about America: at 75 – 80
dollars per barrel of shale
oil in the US is likely to come back again
in its active state, and therefore,
market destabilization is not going anywhere.
However, analysts say: “Install
$ 10 below the floor – and it works. ”

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Olimpia Classic Dashboard

Olimpia Classic Dashboard

This indicator is a Multi Panel that recognizes the best settings for the opening orders from 8 currency families. In exchange family includes: AUD, USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, NZD, CHF, JPY; a total of 28 pairs. The exact time for the opening of the order specified in column A on the panel. You can also choose to receive alerts, e-mail and notifications on your mobile device. You can sort alerts by value pairs spread.

What is displayed on the panel?

Values ​​red means short-term trends, green means long-term trends

Columns in Olimpia Classic Dashboard

  • A: The exact time for the opening of the order:
    • Wait EURUSD gray: this indicates a bad moment for the opening of the order.
    • Buy now EURUSD: it indicates a good time to open orders for the purchase of a pair of EURUSD.

    .

  • B: if timeframes D1, H1 and M15 have the same direction of the trend, there is an arrow.
  • C: if the pair is overbought / oversold, there is an inscription “Brake!” (Possible price reversal zone).
  • D: prepare a report on the purchase or sale if on H4, H1, M15, M5 has the same displacement of the moving average (exponential moving average crosses 7 and 14 value).
  • E: the percentage strength of the trend – the best time of between 60% and 80%. . Exclusive and private Trend Power Percentage Indicator accurately detects the direction of the trend of each pair and the best time to enter the market with the help of MTF indicator. More than 80% means that the trend rolled lot. Perhaps too late to open the transaction. Less than 60% means that the trend is not strong enough.
  • F: timeframes are displayed in green or red when the RSI trend, the EMA and Candle have the same displacement.
  • G: a pair of colored blue at high volume: this column displays information or the current amount of M1 and compares the average value for the last 120 minutes. Blue means that the current amount is above average.
  • H: spread; values ​​greater than the minimum value Spread, painted in orange.

market statistics

  • Trend Status indicates the amount trends pairs 28 and its mean value.
  • Reversal Zone – is the sum of areas of overbought / oversold pair 28 and its average value.
  • Currency Trends maps each group having 7 currency pairs. Green indicates a long-term trend, red – short.

Item display

  • ShowColumnsInfo: true or false. Showing bajhvfwbb columns on one side.
  • Spreadnum. Alerts with pairs having spread below the mean.
  • Enable messages. Pop-up alerts, Email and / or warning.
  • Trend Power: 50 (default). The ideal point is 50%, which means that the trend will continue in this direction. 90% – it’s too late, at least 50% of the trend is not strong enough.
  • Market Trend status: 50 (default). A value of 50% or higher indicates a good moment for opening orders. Value of less than 50% indicates a busy market and not the time to enter the market. This filter can be disabled by setting the value to 0.
  • Difference Broker Time. To configure this option, compare the broker time to the local time (it does not matter when the indicator).

Note

No longer need to decide on a time frame or schedule set better indicator. It is programmed to use all included pairs (28). Its meaning lies in the fact that he recognizes the best pair and tells about it or displays it on the panel.

Advisor is not displayed on the history graphs, as it uses the values ​​in real time.

You run the risk of losing some or all of your funds, even using this indicator. Invest only within your capabilities .. Before applying Olimpia Classic Dashboard check out the risks associated with foreign exchange trading!

Olimpia Classic Dashboard

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USDJPY is set to decrease

USD / JPY is set to decrease

analyst of Forex Analitik

Technically, USD / JPY has formed a classic double top, clearly prominent
4-hour time frame.

On the daily chart support seen breakdown and 118.88
subsequent retreat from 121.56 resistance and again the breakdown of support at 120.35
H4.

Stochastic on D1 is bought, on a monthly schedule is bought
very strong, plus the divergence.

With regard to fundamental data – on Wednesday, we expect
positive Japanese data:

Japan’s monetary base – 36.2% against 35.1%.

Confidence Japanese households – 41.1 against 40.6 in
last month.

Also, it is expected concomitant reduction in output data pairs for
USD and EUR:

On Monday, 2
November – projected output PMI (PMI) from the United States Institute
Supply Management (ISM), which reflects the production activity for the
previous month – a very important and reliable economic indicator. When
yield values ​​of 50.0, in accordance with expectation, or below, this will indicate
the state of the US economy bordering on recession.

On Wednesday, November 4 – the publication of a national report on
changes in the number of US ADP, the non-farm payrolls
the report goes beyond the 2 days before the release of government data on employment
(Nonfarm Payrols) and is a good prediction of the change in the number of employed in
non-agricultural sector. The expected rate – 180K vs. 200K in
Last month, that gives the expected downward trend for the USD.

Also, it is expected to yield a number of positive data on the EUR:

index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI)
Italy on Monday – expected figure of 53.0 against 52.7.

index of business activity in the services sector (PMI) in Spain
Wednesday – 55.3 against 55.1.

Business Activity Index (PMI) in the services sector in Italy
Wednesday – 53.6 against 53.3.

Considering all of the above it can be assumed reduction
instrument USD / JPY to the level of 118.00, and further, to 116.2.

Alternative – in case of breakdown of resistance
121.56 on the daily chart, open the way to 125.27.

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News Chaser MT4

News Chaser MT4

Expert exposes the pending orders and SELLSTOP BUYSTOP type in the number NumberOfPendingPairs = 7 (Or at any other desired amount) for the selected currency pair in a grid with a pitch equal to the input parameter PendingStepPoints = 30 (The number of items in step adjustable).

Two or more pending orders are placed between the dates DateOfOrders_1 and DateOfOrders_2.

Typically, these dates are set for the period of 1-2 minutes … before the release of important economic news.

input parameter DateOfCloseOrders It is used to remove all open pending orders, if they still exist to this time.

If TrailingStop > 0, all the real order modified system of a trailing stop.

input parameter kLot It represents a coefficient of the lot size of the second and all subsequent pending orders. The value may be less than 1 (in this case all pending orders from the second will be smaller lots) or greater than 1 (in this case all pending orders from the second will be larger lots).

Expert can be used one or more times during the working day.

News Chaser MT4

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EURUSD Again move by Mario

EURUSD. Again move by Mario.

As expected, at the
last session, the pair managed to develop upward correction against the background of the closure
positions ahead of the end of the month and not very favorable for the bears
fundamental data.

So one of the important
Federal Committee PCE inflation rates reflected a decrease
consumer spending by 0.1% in September, while the core index, which excludes
fuel costs and food increased by 0.1%, which was lower than
analysts’ forecasts. It certainly does not increase the probability of a
interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December, appreciating that, the participants
Market dismantled every sentence statement released on Wednesday, comparing them
with theses after the September meeting of the Committee and revealed some optimistic
signs. One of which just touched the consumer spending, which 29
October were characterized as “solid” compared to the “moderate” six
weeks earlier. And most importantly, from the text of the phrase is missing that global
crisis and the slowdown in developing countries can
lead to the decline in business activity in the US. Instead, only mentioned that
The Committee monitors the further developments in global financial markets. Really,
The situation in China is not developing at the most negative scenario, as many
They feared at the beginning of September, and now looks to control. Yes, and the yuan
It remains stable. The truth for the sake of the People’s Bank of China had to
significantly reduce the interest rate. Furthermore, the path further
stimulate steel and other central banks, including the ECB, which makes
a possible tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is very risky
event in terms of the significant strengthening of the dollar. In this regard,
this, prospects for increasing interest rates in December, depends not so much on
further dynamics of US macroeconomic indicators, but on the ECB decision
two weeks before that. If, in contrast to their counterparts overseas Mario Draghi
It is consistent in their words and actions, and additional incentives
measures still to be taken, the officials of the Federal Committee is unlikely to immediately
take steps backwards. Therefore, in the coming month, the positive
economic statistics from Europe, reducing the need for expansion of QE, can be as positive for the dollar, as well as good
Data from the United States.

The technical picture and trading strategy.

R4
1.1280 day highs 6 and 7 October

R3
1.1210 daily high Oct. 1

R2
1.1095 daily high Oct. 28

R1 1.1070
daily high Oct. 30

Current price 1.1005

S1 1.0965
daily minimum 30 October

S2
1.0900 daily low October 28

S3
1.0880 daily low on August 4

S4
1.0850 daily low August 5

Despite the slightly
change for the better the fundamental background, the bulls were unable to absorb
interest for sale in the region of 1.1080-1.1100 and were forced to retreat back to
1.10oy the bottom of the figure. Day and hour indicators, getting rid of the overheating
are directed downward. The downward momentum slowed, but may
to regain full strength if the bears manage to push the pair back below
1.1000. For those who came in the sales figures of the top 1.10oy can cut part
volume at the current price, and the rest is left up to the new assault on 1.0900.

Short 1.0985, stop 1.1120,
profit 1.0860

Short 1.1055, stop 1.1120,
profit 1.0860

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Forex ee Economic Daily Digest

Forex.ee: Economic Daily Digest

Daily Digest of economic Forex.ee
Watch for major economic
news with us

Monday,
October 19th

NZD / USD fell on Monday against the backdrop of the fact that the growth
China’s GDP slowed to 6.9% compared with the previous rate of 7%.
The volume of industrial production in China has been in the red at 5.7% instead
Analysis of the expected 6%. NZD traded on
mark of 0.6811 against its US equivalent. Current levels
Support and resistance levels are located at 0.6706 and 0.6884,
respectively.

EUR / USD aspires upwards, reaching 1.1373 after declining
at the end of last week. On Thursday, the ECB stated that
stimulate growth of prices in the euro area requires additional measures. Friday
data confirmed that the rate of inflation in the euro area began in September
negative (for the first time since the ECB launched its program of quantitative
softening). Current support and resistance levels are at levels
1.1253 and 1.1429.

GBP / USD It was slightly higher at 1.5435. tomorrow attention
the market will be focused on the speech Governor of the Bank of England, which,
It is expected to share the point of view of representatives of the bank’s lower inflation
In Great Britain. On Wednesday, investors will monitor the volume of net
public sector borrowing. Retail sales data will be
published Thursday. Support is seen at 1.5327, while the
resistance is near 1.5540.

AUD / USD this morning held relatively stable, despite
the weak data on the Chinese economy, while sentiment regarding
US dollar remained skeptical. The pair is in the area of ​​0.7291. In this
week expected data from the US, which can affect the value of
AUD. Data this week include the number of building permits
and sales of existing homes. Support and resistance levels are seen at
marks 0.7174 and 0.7337.

The best conditions for
starting at
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the difference with the first deal!

your Europe ECN-broker,

Forex.ee.

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Trading strategy is trend following

Trading strategy is trend following (Gain)

Continuing the theme, start here –trade strategy is trend following, trend-following trading strategy (Continued).

Options for strengthening trendsledyaschih strategies:

Option 1.

Add to the strategy one more trend indicator, for example, the LED 7, but not necessarily one that is calculated other mathematical methods and preferably smooth.

Duplication of indicators – this is one of the techniques that increase the reliability strategy when changing the rhythm of the market.

Option 2.

Duplication of the CU signals with different schedules. For example:

General trend – Definition directions the trend on the big chart:

And the opening and closing positions on the indicator signal 7 on the lower graph. but the discovery of ONLY in the direction of the general trend.

Option 3.

Combining all in one strategy option allows you to HIGHLY reliable vehicle. Only it should be understood that the addition to the strategy of each additional indicator (or filter) reduces the frequency of trading strategy resulting (small signal).


P.S. My blogs section "trading ideas":

The FOREX market from the point of view of the inventor.

Most good indicator …?

Why do traders lose?

To the question: “Are there examples that confirm the existence of break-even trading strategy?”

How can I beat the FOREX?

Trading strategy is trend following

Trading strategy is trend following (Continued)

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