Big banks say goodbye to hopes for oil rise by year-end
This week, an oil analyst community to give up hope.
Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Societe Generale SA and other banks that were once predicted that oil will finish the year at around $ 60 a barrel or above, is now waiting to see what the price is hardly rise to $ 50. The main part of the guilt they impose on OPEC.
Expectations were high at the beginning of the year, after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia came to a historic agreement on the collective production cuts in an attempt to put an end to a three-year oversupply. However, at the price last week entered into "bear" phase amid signs that the decline in production does not help reduce the bloated world stocks and US shale companies increase activity, leveling efforts of OPEC and its allies.
"The credibility of OPEC is seriously injured", – said the head of department of commodity markets research Bank of America in New York, Francisco Blanch. Two months ago, the bank predicted that the international benchmark Brent this summer price will rise to $ 70 per barrel, and now expects that in the next quarter will be the average grade of all bargain at $ 47.
By 16:53 MSK Brent cost $ 47.57 per barrel, and American brand West Texas Intermediate – $ 45,25.
revision of opinions
The head of department of commodity markets research Citigroup Ed Morse said June 26 that quotes Brent is likely that this year will not exceed $ 60 per barrel. investment funds "so badly burned" on long positions on oil, which is unlikely to return to them, even if the supply and demand balance will improve, he said.
See also: Goldman wonders how he could have been so wrong with the forecast of oil (1)
Societe Generale SA lowered its assessment of 29 June, forecasting WTI at $ 47.50 per barrel in the third quarter and $ 50 in the fourth, wrote in a chapter for Oil Research Bank Mayk Uittner. In late December, these forecasts were $ 56 and $ 58.50, respectively.
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