Dollar correction continues

Dollar correction continues

We begin the new month with a bank holiday in many countries today and Monday, so we will probably see some calm sessions, in particular, because today do not go out on non-farm employment data in the US that have been moved to next Friday. At night, there was no special activity in the Asian markets, and today out researches of the industrial sectors of the UK and the US, as well as consumer sentiment index of the Institute of Michigan, which can cause some momentum for the pound and the dollar.

If you look back at the events of this week, you will remember it for a dollar correction. Since mid-March, when the dollar reached an eleven-year high, the dollar index has lost 5.6% after the evaluation of economic data releases investors in April, which is not expected anything good, and now the majority of moves first rate hike since June on the back burner. At the end of next week’s key release will be the publication of the Fed’s non-farm employment data, which is expected to reduce the unemployment rate from 5.5% to 5.4%, and the main data is expected to jump from 126k to 208k.

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Gold is on rise thanks to weak dollar and African

Gold is on the rise, thanks to the weak dollar and the African miners

in a major: unexpectedly weak US
Statistics brought down the dollar to a four-month
lows against a basket of currencies, and now
precious metal on a horse, as
It is becoming an attractive and safe
aktivom- “safe haven.” By 11.06 MSK June
gold futures worth 1 215,00 dollars.
The sharp rise took place during
American session, immediately after the
revenues on retail sales data
in USA. Gold just for two
hours jumped to psychologically
important mark of $ 1,200 and
repeatedly passed over the border upward.

Lee, an analyst at Phillip Futures, said:
“We believe that the hands of the Federal Reserve today
connected. It supports prices

Indeed, weak statistics from
US enters – one after the other figures
show slowing economic
, and the Fed has previously stated that the increase
only bet when he sees one hundred percent
guarantees to strengthen the economy. Delay
growth of interest rates of the regulator
It goes into the hands of gold.

there is
and a few less important, but still
significant factors of rising gold prices
futures. For example, the formed
the prospect of supply disruptions yellow
metal from South Africa. Association
South African miners and builders
(AMCU) requires at least
doubling wages
payment for the gold workers
industry. A similar event for
platinodobyvayuschey sphere over
South Africa’s five-month strike of miners.

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German Finance Minister did not rule out Greek

German Finance Minister did not rule out a Greek default

German Finance Wolfgang Schäuble in
an interview with The Wall Street Journal said,
that he could not rule out the Greek
default. At one time, in 2012, Schäuble
He gave the assurance that the EU will not allow
Greek default. Yesterday, on the question of whether,
Whether he will be able to repeat this promise,
Schäuble replied: “I would be very good
I think twice before repeating it in
the current situation. ”

democratic solution to the Greek
people put us in a completely different
position than three years ago “, –
He said the minister, referring to the January
elections, won by the radical
Left Party, has promised to reverse the
situation with austerity and painful
economic reforms in the country.

Schäuble – the main architect of the system
austerity, which was a response
Europe’s debt crisis. In an interview
Yesterday he showed no signs of
willingness to compromise in negotiations
how to unlock the latest
a portion of the money, prepared to help
Greece. If you reach an agreement
and it did not succeed, then in six weeks
Greece will have no choice,
other than a default by one billion debt
payments this summer.

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What to expect from Russian central bank’s meeting

What to expect from the Russian central bank‘s meeting on Friday?

On Friday, July 31,
scheduled regular meeting
Bank of Russia monetary
policy. This year, the Russian regulator
four times already reduced its key interest rate,
to stimulate economic growth,
but whether it is the fifth time will do when
exchange rate falls again, and inflation
It is growing?

Back in June, the majority of
experts were convinced that the central bank
lower rates for at least
symbolic 50 points, but now
They began to have doubts. According to
Federal State Statistics Service, in July, prices rose by 0.8%
monthly terms, whereas in June
It was only 0.2%, and in May – 0.4%. Besides,
annual inflation in this month is likely
everything will be 15.7%
against 15.3% in June. It’s all because of
indexation, which was
Earlier this month, as well as from the collapse of the course
rubles per month by almost 10%.

In any case, the decision
CBA will affect the dynamics of rates
deposits. Most likely, even “pause”
to mitigate the monetary policy is unlikely
Do stop falling interest
deposits. As for the cost of
loans, then here, too, can not wait
rapid decrease – according to statistics
of the Bank of Russia’s interest
bank loans to respond to
easing of monetary policy only
2-3 months.

At the last meeting
It lowered the rate (in June) at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
1 p.p.- to 11.5%. Then the head of the regulator
Elvira Nabiullina warned that
rate of decline in rates could be
slowed. Today, the State Duma deputy
Vladimir Gutenev spoke very
ambiguous about the interest rates of the Central Bank:
"If the July 31 meeting of the Board
directors of the central bank limited
symbolic reduction in the key rate
0.25 – 0.5 ppt or leave it at the current
level, we can say that he
I made a final decision not to
participate in shaping the economy
development. This monetary
policy chief financial regulator
the country indicates a desire to engage in
only local issues to ensure
psevdosderzhivaniya inflation. preservation
high key rate of the Central Bank will start
a new round of inflation".

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S P has assigned Brazil speculative rating

S P has assigned Brazil a speculative rating

Brazil’s rating by international
rating agency S P
today lowered to BB +
with a negative outlook.
Thus, from the investment
rating became speculative. to President Dilma
Rousseff is not yet possible to regain the trust
investors and pulled the biggest
Latin America’s economy out of recession.

slightly less
two months ago S P
warned that
lowering is possible, but the extent to which
quickly it happened, stresses
the seriousness of the problems of the economy and
Brazil’s public finances. By
At least, according to the representatives of
the agency, the decision was based on
political issues that affect
on the economy. corruption scandals
undermine the credibility of the government and
undermining the economy. Brazil’s GDP
It lasts for two quarters in a row
– technically, the country slipped into
recession. The inflation rate more than double
target, lost to Real Madrid
dollar 25% since the beginning of the year. Negative
forecast clearly alludes to
the possibility of further reducing
rating in the near future.

Seven years ago the first time received from S P
investment rating.
It was a key moment, a sign,
that the country has a real economic
weight in the world. Now a decade of raw materials
boom stopped.

the event will be a serious obstacle
in order to accelerate the economy again.
First of all, it increases the cost of
foreign borrowing for the government
and large companies. market sentiment
deteriorate, and investors will go
Brazilian assets
will automatically become
high-risk. However, flood
Sales are now expected to have not: you
wait to lower the rating further
at least one of the international rating

this does not happen. For example, Fitch
Ratings now assesses Brazil
at BBB (by two notches
above investment grade), but
negative outlook.

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Opinion terrorists can not destroy economy of

Opinion: The terrorists can not destroy the economy of the developed world

days ago in Paris I experienced the attack
terrorists. In addition to the terrible bloodshed,
attack and had deep physical
the impact on the city. But despite the
broken windows and damaged as a result of
building explosions, Paris lives as well as
and to the terrible Friday. On all leaves,
that the Islamic state (organization
banned in Russia) is not capable of deep
disrupt the physical infrastructure,
energy supplies, economic system
France (or any other country’s development
the world).

Al-Qaeda operating model can
compared with a global franchise:
her brand took semi-independent
groups that independently
organize and carry out their

for what is happening today, IG (forbidden
terrorist organization in Russia)
He prefers to outsource. Multiport
weapons, cross-border supply chain
planning terrorist acts
– all of this is consistent with
hypothetical slogan “Created
in Syria. Made in Belgium (here
You can substitute any other country). ”
However, the economic impact of
Islamists obsessed with physical
the maximum amount of destruction
“Infidels”, usually has only Tourism
and transport companies.

there is
Examples: Sept. 11, 2001
The United States had little long-term
effect after the initial damage
$ 90
billion. For comparison, the financial crisis
2008 and the earthquake in Japan in 2011
(Violating the global supply chain
goods) to influence the
the global economy was much stronger.
more than a hundred people were killed in Paris. But
from an economic point of view, random
accident at the German chemical plant
in 2012 that killed two workers struck
more damage since stopped
production of synthetic resin,
used by dozens of European and
US automakers.

terrorist group in Syria
and manages the Iraq oil industry
within a controlled area
but there is little that is capable of economically
point of view outside of its borders. Murder
people is appalling, but this one in the war
enough. Remember how the Nazis
bombed the docks in east London in 1940
Years: they deliberately destroyed
infrastructure to maximize
hamper delivery.

terrorists do not. they encourage
clash of civilizations, Kindle
the fear of the so-called “gray zone” –
among the millions of people who do not want
live under the hood of the Caliphate and prefer
to enjoy his freedom in another
place. Under the harsh rhetoric about Paris
as “the capital of prostitution and vice”
IG implies that wanted to destroy
French economy.

Sandler, a professor of the University of Texas,
studying the economic impact of
terrorism, says: “They may scare
all of us, but it seems, can not affect
on the economic system. ”

it depends on the scale. Most
terrorist attacks, even Paris,
– small and highly localized. If
you do not happen to be around at the moment
– You’re safe. Important and serious
diversification of the modern economy.
There are some bottlenecks in the energy sector
and communications infrastructure, but
all of their key points are well protected.

Sheff, a professor at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, said:
“Individual companies may suffer.
But the industry as a whole is very strong and well
protected. ”

Contrary to what is happening now,
can result in the Spanish province
Basque. Over 20 years of separatist
(Aimed mainly at industrial
objects, rather than killing people) GDP
the region fell by 10%.

way that can hurt the economy
France and the whole of the eurozone as a whole – is
Government reactions in the form of recovery
passport and border control
suspension of the Schengen
agreements that allow free
the movement of people and goods. economists
warned this week that “growing
response against the key member
globalization. ”

actions of terrorists – has its own logic.
They cause panic and fear that
far exceeds the real danger.
To some extent, this may even be
marketing campaign for the new recruits.
But against the background of natural phenomena, such as
earthquake, or on the background of the global
economic laws, even large
attack – it is a minor event.

think about it, when faced with
atrocities. But is afraid to give
fighters win.

Parisians have fallen, but Paris is worth, and will
stand. Like Frankfurt, Berlin, Rome,
Madrid. Like all of Europe, but only in the
if it is to stick together.

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Fit notes, understand the essence of each and your profits will move forward.

1. The first trips to the bathroom.
When you learn to use the toilet – you have no job description, no regulations. However you learn to do it on the error. The first time, all pee in diapers and diapers, and then gradually develop the skill. Similarly, the business – first steps – a problem, then it is easier, only a few become champions, but running is useful to all.

2. Entrepreneurship – it’s like?
Entrepreneurship – this is not the search for customers, not selling products. Not signing contracts – a way of thinking. This independence of judgment, the ability to choose their own path and follow it, even if the road is still a path. Or even no path at all. You are doing something that inspires you and solve other people’s problems. Decided to other people’s problems – we earned money.

3. Education.
Of my friends little entrepreneurs who have specialized education. Moreover, the economic education at the majority do not. Important to have the ability to reason and make decisions. Decisions can be wrong, but experience helps over time to take more correct decisions. Diploma paper is important to the state and the employer. But even there, a piece of paper will not work for you.

4. Everything is changing.
Yesterday were in vogue phones, faxes. Now the fax machine in our office gathering dust around. Everything is changing, and the winner is the one who is able to solve problems in an ever changing environment.

5. With enemies better to make friends and communicate than spitting and fighting.
I have friends entrepreneurs who are in one of the sectors of their businesses compete, but communicate in a friendly manner. Their competitors are exhausted, and they agree.

6. To hell with the public.
Herd will always throw rotten tomatoes at everyone who is outside the herd. If you do things better – it will spit from the bottom and with envy, if worse – then contemptuously. Herd always critical of the normal things, and likes cheaters, thieves, rascals. That is why the training “How to make a million” will be the crowd, and to engage in actual operating unit will be projects.

7. Limit your lie.
If something can not, you better tell me right away. Most often you want the impossible. Do not promise what you can not do, and do everything that you can promise.

8. Nasty stuff.
All the nastiest stuff, which is engaged in laziness and they seem to be less important – cause the biggest problems. You can lose a client, lost the tender or lose a lot of money. One good friend of mine in the calculations of the contract for the metal did not realize port tax of $ 10 per ton. I forgot. Three steamers, each of 10,000 tons. How do you like the final figure? A figure in a huge list of expenses. A loss of a few jeeps.

9. A good agreement does not feed a year.
beginners are often lucky, or they start a business from the first lucrative contract. Further, they have an idea that everything will continue as simply and well. Seen entrepreneurs who got fat client and relaxed. A year has passed, the client left, they closed. Who prevented the search for new customers?

10. Who does not risk, that does not drink with grief.
It should sound like this saying, if the casino employees will you tell the truth. Risk – is wondering if he is acquitted. Question – what you risk, and that the plan to get?

11. Wise, Wise, too smart.
It is important to find a middle ground between excessive wisdom and poor design. Many people wisely indefinitely, but would not get to work on the project.
Unnecessary complexity always lead to failure.

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